Analysis of Seasonal Rainfall Trends and Farmers’ Perceptions of Rainfall Variability Impacts in Amuru District, Uganda

Abstract

Abstract
Understanding farmers’ perceptions of climate change, long-term variability, and trends in rainfall at a local scale is crucial for developing climate-tailored agricultural extension services that enhance adaptation to climate change. This study examined the perceptions of farmers in Amuru District regarding long-term changes in climate variables and analyzed the trends in seasonal and annual rainfall in the district. Utilizing a cross-sectional survey design, data were collected from 135 randomly selected smallholder farmer households across two sub-counties in Amuru District through semi-structured questionnaires administered in February 2018. Additionally, monthly rainfall datasets from the Uganda Meteorological Authority (UMA) for the period 1980 to 2019 were analyzed to evaluate rainfall trends. The nonparametric Sequential Mann-Kendall (SMK) test was employed at a 5% significance level to detect trends and abrupt change points in mean seasonal rainfall. Results showed that 92% of respondents perceived a decrease in the number of rain days over the past 39 years. The analysis indicated an abrupt change in rainfall patterns during the March, April, May (MAM) season in 1987, while the September, October, November (SON) season exhibited variability above and below the upper limit of the anomaly (standardized index of + 2.0 for SON rainfall total) from 1988 to 2019 without significant abrupt change. The mean seasonal rainfall for MAM and SON cropping seasons displayed a high coefficient of variance (above 0.7) demonstrating remarkable variability, in contrast to June, July, and August (JJA), which did not show significant changes. These findings underline the need to integrate seasonal rainfall characteristics such as onset, cessation, and length of the crop growing season into agricultural extension messages. The study’s implications suggest that providing farmers with localized climate information can significantly inform their farming strategies, thereby enhancing their resilience to climate variability and improving agricultural productivity. Policymakers and agricultural extension services should consider these findings to develop targeted interventions that support farmers in adapting to changing climatic conditions.