An assessment of climate extremes in Mbale Municipality in Eastern Uganda

Abstract

Abstract
This study investigated historic and future characteristics of precipitation periods in Mbale Municipality. Observed historic (1982–2014) and modeled future (2021–50) precipitation data were analyzed using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Modeled data depict a likelihood of more frequent extremely wet and dry periods in near future as compared to historic period. In particular, there is a likelihood of more frequent extremely wet periods in 2020s and 2030s and more frequent extremely dry periods during 2030s and 2040s as opposed to findings from regional z-indices. Both historic and future precipitation extremes are pronounced between August and January. These findings imply that livelihoods in Mbale are likely to be threatened by precipitation extremes. Thus, researchers, practitioners, and policy makers need to assess influential factors that can enhance resilience. In conclusion, localized rather than regional indices are more able to distill local conditions, at the same time provide more accurate predictions of future extremes.